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Swiss vs random draw

Posted By: Robert Wachtel
Date: Tuesday, 12 March 2013, at 5:04 p.m.

I am looking for input from some of the less mathematically challenged members of the backgammon community on this issue.

There is a tournament structure that is becoming quite popular in Europe. Apparently it was conceived by the Turkish organizer, Fuat Erdag. The format: triple elimination with a random draw each round. Usually 9-point matches. The tournament ends when only one player survives who has not lost three times.

There are issues with the assignment of byes and with tie-breaking; but they are not my concern here.

At a recent event in which this format was used, a very accomplished international player complained about the structure, saying that he wished the triple-elimination format could be modified to a Swiss system, where the pairings are made on the basis of the players' previous results in the competition.

In the course of the subsequent discussion, it turned out that his motive for preferring the Swiss was that he believed that it favored the stronger players, making it more unlikely that a bad player could win the tournament. Under a Swiss system, he said, a weak player who got lucky early on in the tournament would always get his comeuppance later on, when he could not avoid the better players; whereas under a random draw, a weakie could dance between the raindrops, getting favorable pairings all the way through the tournament.

My first reaction was exactly the opposite: as a good player, I look upon the Swiss structure as a skill-equalizer, for it forces the stronger players, almost for the entire duration of the tournament, to play exclusively other strong players.

I understand that there are some ambiguities involved in the way I have posed the problem: a structure that minimizes the chances of the worst player winning the tournament will not necessarily maximize the chance of the best player winning it. But if those ambiguities are interesting, perhaps they can be teased out in the forum discussion.

So to keep it simple, just for now, which structure do you believe is the more favorable to the better player?

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