third roll: 31/53-22/42-44, what makes the difference?

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third roll: 31/53-22/42-44, what makes the difference?

Posted By: Tenland
Date: Thursday, 14 March 2013, at 8:58 p.m.

The third roll 44s after a first roll making a point are played 24/20(2) 13/9(2) most of the time and when they aren't, 24/20(2) 8/4(2) is very often right (disregarding plays when obvious things change the play...). In the plays I show below, we are indeed choosing between 8/4(2) and 13/9(2). Can anyone help me out on the reasons for 13/9 compared to 8/4 in the examples below? More specifically, why does the right play tend to be 8/4 after his 22 down, but almost never after his other point-making rolls?

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159

Unlimited Game

pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b---BD-B---cEb--c-c-b--B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 44

1. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 8/4(2) eq: +0,534
Player:
Opponent: 60,65% (G:20,80% B:0,60%)
39,35% (G:6,23% B:0,21%)
2. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 13/9(2) eq: +0,528 (-0,006)
Player:
Opponent: 61,23% (G:18,82% B:0,53%)
38,77% (G:6,16% B:0,22%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159

Unlimited Game

pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b-B--D-B---cEb--c-c-b--B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 44

1. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 8/4(2) eq: +0,385
Player:
Opponent: 57,19% (G:18,56% B:0,53%)
42,81% (G:7,06% B:0,25%)
2. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 13/9(2) eq: +0,370 (-0,015)
Player:
Opponent: 57,01% (G:17,71% B:0,45%)
42,99% (G:6,56% B:0,25%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161

Unlimited Game

pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b-B--D-B---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 44

1. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 13/9(2) eq: +0,521
Player:
Opponent: 61,37% (G:18,62% B:0,62%)
38,63% (G:6,45% B:0,23%)
2. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 8/4(2) eq: +0,514 (-0,007)
Player:
Opponent: 60,91% (G:19,54% B:0,66%)
39,09% (G:6,79% B:0,23%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161

Unlimited Game

pip: 163
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-b---BD-B---eE---b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
to play 44

1. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 13/9(2) eq: +0,675
Player:
Opponent: 64,89% (G:20,19% B:0,61%)
35,11% (G:5,67% B:0,19%)
2. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 8/4(2) eq: +0,652 (-0,023)
Player:
Opponent: 63,82% (G:21,51% B:0,68%)
36,18% (G:5,98% B:0,20%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10