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BGonline.org Forums
The value of a checker (in bearoff)
Posted By: Keene
Date: Friday, 15 March 2013, at 4:24 p.m.
I am sure someone has a clever formula worked out that ties in shots left vs checkers remaining vs size of opponents threat (not a euphemism) vs cube location. Can anyone point me in that direction?
Just in case this needs further clarification:
You are bearing off, opponent has a closed board, you have 8 off, you can leave a 16/36 shot (with minimal shots, no additional checkers off) or a 19/36 (more shots, 1 additional checker off) or a 23/36 shot (most shots, 2 additional checkers off). What to do?
Similar question: Similar scenario, but you roll a set, is there a measurement of awkwardness equation? How do you measure whether to take off 4, more awkwardly, 2, less awkwardly, none, super safe - envision your own position for that. Historically, I try and count the xovers remaining, and judge my gammon rate from there, then decide how much risk is worth taking - but there must be a better, more clinical way than that without performing super computer calculations in my head, and risk having that explode all over the place.
Keene
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