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I might have done better just to flip a coin

Posted By: Chase
Date: Wednesday, 20 March 2013, at 3:04 a.m.

In Response To: I might have done better just to flip a coin (Timothy Chow)

I've found that Magriel's safe versus bold criteria often lead me to making poor choices. I'm starting to realize it's because I can't always tell the difference between "safe" and "safe for now."

Here, 8/2 looks safer, but I wonder if it's just safer for now. Suppose I slot the 2pt and I'm missed. Now what? I might not cover next turn, but even if I do, I'm likely to have trouble finding a way to play the rest of my roll safely. Either way, the safety I sought was illusory. Now suppose I slot the 2pt and I'm missed and I manage to stay out of further trouble next turn. Again, now what? I've made a point I don't really want, lost a valuable builder off my 8pt, and haven't really done anything to make life easier. Meanwhile, White has likely improved his board, and, again, the future isn't looking so safe for me.

I still have trouble distinguishing between safe and safe for now, but I think learning to make that distinction will be a key to eliminating a lot of errors in my game.

b/23 13/7

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