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BGonline.org Forums
Everyone's favorite score!
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Everyone's favorite score! (Timothy Chow)
Date: Friday, 22 March 2013, at 6:33 p.m.
This has actually become one of my favorite scores. Here's what we need to know going in.
- 3a's live cube take point is 21.5%
- 3a's gammon value on a 2 cube is ~.450
- 4a's gammon value on a 2 cube is ~.950
Now if you can reasonably estimate the win/gammon breakdown you shouldn't get yourself into too much trouble. It seems to me Blue (4a) is a clear favorite, better than 60/40 but not quite 2/3rds so I'd call it 63%. His gammons will be relatively low even though he has a moderate race lead of just over 20 pips and there's a checker on the bar with 4 men back it's impossible really to turn this into an attacking position with the opponent already owning the 20pt and the other blot well deep in the home board. The usual question I ask myself is "Does this position win more or less gammons than the starting position?" (14-14.5%) My answer here is I don't know so let's leave it at that, 14% for Blue and then since it's still in the early game White and nothing bizarre White will win the standard 7-8% gammons.
So we have a 63/37 win % split with gammons being 14/7.5 respectively. The live cube take point is 21.5%. Adjusting the gammons according to their aforementioned gammon values so we can come up with a fully adjusted take point we have (14 * .950) - (7.5 * .450) = 13.3 - 3.3 or 10%. We add that 10% to 21.5% and get the fatp of 31.5% for White. We already estimated he wins 37% so the take is quite the snore.
The only question yet to be answered is do we have a double? We can't derive that directly from the estimates but look at the volatility, is it low/medium/high? I would say it's rather low and there's not much likely to change in a big way over the next sequence. Furthermore, in breaking down the numbers we see we are still quite a ways from our cash point. That's another nod in the direction of holding off.
No double/Take
Stick
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