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Cube action?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 24 March 2013, at 6:45 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (Timothy Chow)

I think you should try. When my students try they are always surprised in the beginning how close they are to the real numbers. Esp. once they have the rule of the taker/dropper's gammons always being between 5-10% and to use 8% generally unless the position is *special*.

For a position like this I would recommend first asking yourself "Who is the game favorite?" If you decide it's the on roll player, I would then continue "Do I think he is at least a 60/40 favorite?" If no, then clearly you pick a number between 50-60%. If yes, then I continue down the line "Do I think he is a 2-1 favorite?" Etc...

Then you insert those numbers and see what you come up with. You're allowed to keep your 'gut feel' of the position but there is no reason not to try this way if you can do it. If your gut feel and your numbers align, great, that's your answer. If they don't though, esp. if they don't align by a large amount, then you should re-assess and try to figure out which one you trust more or where you might have went wrong.

For example if your eyeballing of this position leads you to double pass wondering if it is maybe too good and the breakdown of the numbers says monster take then we have an issue that needs resolved.

Stick

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