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PR question for the mathematically inclined

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Monday, 25 March 2013, at 12:29 p.m.

In Response To: PR question for the mathematically inclined (Chase)

What i would do is export your 1 point match result to Excel and get from there the standard deviation of your PR in order to get the PR confidence.

here are the steps:

in XG, open your profile and go to the result tab

click "match lengtH" and select "1 pt(s)" to filter your game to DMP only

click the menu "Result>>copy to clipboard>>Session list (display only)"

open Excel and paste the data in the A1 cell

because the export does not contain the PR you will need to add it. Enter "PR" in cell BD1 and the following formula in BD2 "=-AM2*500". copy the formula down to all lines.

in BF2 enter "=AVERAGE(BD:BD)", in BF3 enter "=STDEV(BD:BD)", in BF4 enter "=CONFIDENCE(0.05,BF3,COUNT(BD:BD))"

in BF7 enter "=BF2-BF5" and BF8 enter "=BF2+BF5", these are the 95% confidence interval for your PR.

As a ballpark from my own profile: 856 DMP games, the confidence (BF5) is +/- 0.28 PR for an average of "5.93" (to Phil's point the median is 5.3).
For only the 1st 50 games, the confidence is +/- 1.51 PR (i've a higher std)
For a random 50 games (#501 to #550), the confidence is +/- 0.91 PR (i've a lower std)

Messages In This Thread

• PR question for the mathematically inclined
  Chase -- Sunday, 24 March 2013, at 5:40 p.m.
  • PR question for the mathematically inclined
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 24 March 2013, at 6:01 p.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      Bob koca -- Sunday, 24 March 2013, at 7:30 p.m.
      • PR question for the mathematically inclined
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 12:27 a.m.
  • PR question for the mathematically inclined
    Phil Simborg -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:21 a.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      Colin Owen -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 12:16 p.m.
      • PR question for the mathematically inclined
        Phil Simborg -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 2:34 p.m.
      • PR question for the mathematically inclined
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 4:49 p.m.
        • PR question for the mathematically inclined
          Colin Owen -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:37 p.m.
          • PR question for the mathematically inclined
            Phil Simborg -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:56 p.m.
            • Hypocrite! *NM*
              Colin Owen -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 6:46 p.m.
            • PR question for the mathematically inclined
              Art Grater -- Tuesday, 26 March 2013, at 12:32 a.m.
        • PR question for the mathematically inclined
          Jason Lee -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 6:41 p.m.
    • Use mean and not median !!!
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 1:59 p.m.
      • Use mean and not median !!!
        Phil Simborg -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 3:28 p.m.
  • PR question for the mathematically inclined
    eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 12:29 p.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      Chase -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 4:21 p.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      Bob koca -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 4:27 p.m.
      • PR question for the mathematically inclined
        eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:31 p.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      Chase -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 4:37 p.m.
      • PR question for the mathematically inclined
        mtuhtan -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 4:59 p.m.
        • PR question for the mathematically inclined
          Chase -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:08 p.m.
    • I may have it sorted out
      Chase -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:06 p.m.
  • PR question for the mathematically inclined
    christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 7:09 p.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 7:11 p.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 8:32 p.m.
      • PR question for the mathematically inclined
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 11:39 p.m.
        • PR question for the mathematically inclined
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 8:04 p.m.
          • PR question for the mathematically inclined
            Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 28 March 2013, at 1:50 a.m.
            • PR question for the mathematically inclined
              Bob Koca -- Thursday, 28 March 2013, at 4:29 a.m.