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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 25 March 2013, at 4:06 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (John O'Hagan)

Leader's dead takepoint ATS is 21% plus 73% of trailer's gammons less 46% of his own and trailer's 4-cube takepoint on anything but a last roll position is 16%. With 25%/9% gammons, the gammon-adjusted takepoint becomes ~ 35% less a small amount of recube vig (since ATS the leader can use his winning chances or his gammon chances to his advantage, but not both). So maybe deduct 1%-2% for cube vig.

The take is huge and the D/ND is TCTC. Black has a real strong blockade so he has a huge take.

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 134
5 point match
pip: 114
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aB-B-BCA-B--cA--bbAcbbA---:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54.89% (G:25.12% B:0.16%) 55.03% (G:25.02% B:0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45.11% (G:9.89% B:0.86%) 44.97% (G:9.28% B:0.97%)
Cubeless Equities +0.180 +0.607
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.449±0.008 (+0.442..+0.457)
Double/Take:+0.448 (-0.001)±0.011 (+0.437..+0.459)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.551)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.2%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:57.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 34 minutes 15 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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