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PR question for the mathematically inclined

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:31 p.m.

In Response To: PR question for the mathematically inclined (Bob koca)

I think that would be better to do that in excel. it exports the number of decision (by adding the moves, doubles and takes columns)

however, off top of my head, i do not think there are simple formula in excel to calculated weighted (by decisions) average and standard deviation, so you have to do that manualy sum(decision*pr)/sum(decision) and then summing the decision*(Pr-AVG)^2 to get the variance

doing so on my 856 games gives

  • non weighted: AVG=5.928, STD=4.12 , conf=0.28
  • weighted: AVG=5.900, STD=3.90, conf=0.26

    that confirm the intuitive point that several high PR games are with little decision (my average Pr on the 33 games with less than 10 decision is 6.9)

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