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PR question for the mathematically inclined

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 28 March 2013, at 1:50 a.m.

In Response To: PR question for the mathematically inclined (Bob Koca)

The mean value of the luck-adjusted result is correct, but it's still possible that a large probability of a small underestimate is counterbalanced by a small probability of a large overestimate. In that case, you will more often than not find that the luck-adjusted result slightly underestimates the correct value.

Having an unbiased estimator is usually a good thing, but if the skewness (third moment) is sufficiently positive then one expects to obtain a lowball estimate most of the time, especially with a small number of trials.

Messages In This Thread

• PR question for the mathematically inclined
  Chase -- Sunday, 24 March 2013, at 5:40 p.m.
  • PR question for the mathematically inclined
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 24 March 2013, at 6:01 p.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      Bob koca -- Sunday, 24 March 2013, at 7:30 p.m.
      • PR question for the mathematically inclined
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 12:27 a.m.
  • PR question for the mathematically inclined
    Phil Simborg -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:21 a.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      Colin Owen -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 12:16 p.m.
      • PR question for the mathematically inclined
        Phil Simborg -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 2:34 p.m.
      • PR question for the mathematically inclined
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 4:49 p.m.
        • PR question for the mathematically inclined
          Colin Owen -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:37 p.m.
          • PR question for the mathematically inclined
            Phil Simborg -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:56 p.m.
            • Hypocrite! *NM*
              Colin Owen -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 6:46 p.m.
            • PR question for the mathematically inclined
              Art Grater -- Tuesday, 26 March 2013, at 12:32 a.m.
        • PR question for the mathematically inclined
          Jason Lee -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 6:41 p.m.
    • Use mean and not median !!!
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 1:59 p.m.
      • Use mean and not median !!!
        Phil Simborg -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 3:28 p.m.
  • PR question for the mathematically inclined
    eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 12:29 p.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      Chase -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 4:21 p.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      Bob koca -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 4:27 p.m.
      • PR question for the mathematically inclined
        eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:31 p.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      Chase -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 4:37 p.m.
      • PR question for the mathematically inclined
        mtuhtan -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 4:59 p.m.
        • PR question for the mathematically inclined
          Chase -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:08 p.m.
    • I may have it sorted out
      Chase -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 5:06 p.m.
  • PR question for the mathematically inclined
    christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 7:09 p.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 7:11 p.m.
    • PR question for the mathematically inclined
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 8:32 p.m.
      • PR question for the mathematically inclined
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 25 March 2013, at 11:39 p.m.
        • PR question for the mathematically inclined
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 27 March 2013, at 8:04 p.m.
          • PR question for the mathematically inclined
            Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 28 March 2013, at 1:50 a.m.
            • PR question for the mathematically inclined
              Bob Koca -- Thursday, 28 March 2013, at 4:29 a.m.