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What is the unluckiest roll, on average?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 31 March 2013, at 2:56 a.m.

I have a vague feeling that this may have been discussed on BGO before but I can't find it.

Suppose we got a bot to play a kajillion games of backgammon against itself, and for each roll, we tallied its estimate of how lucky/unlucky that roll was. What roll would be the unluckiest one, on average?

Clearly, doublets tend to be lucky. My gut feeling is that 52 or 51 tends to be unlucky. It would be amusing to get some hard evidence on the subject. Of course a bot rollout isn't necessarily the final word if we're interested in what roll is the unluckiest in human-versus-human play, but it should give a good indication.

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