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Reference positions and this EPC BS

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 31 March 2013, at 7:14 a.m.

In Response To: cube decision (John O'Hagan)

I know 2 ref pos here...then I have no problem realizing that this is a trivial take ATS since if I recube no matter what I win more matches than if I pass.

src="../Images/p_up_0.gif" alt="" />		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 24 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 7 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=---AAAB-----------------g-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.772% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)	74.772% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.228% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)	25.228% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.4954	+0.9909
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.7391 (-0.1778)
Redouble/Take:	+0.9168
Redouble/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.0832)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.192.pre-release

Here we have the best position for 6 checkers and 23 pip...and it is a money take...so it is most obvious in the OP position that the doubler is clearly worse off here as the taker's defect from moving 1 checker from the 3 pt to the 4 is clearly less than 1 pip whereas the doubler is losing some doubles and clearly 1 pip worse...ie easy take ATS.

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 23 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 7 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=--ABAAA-----------------g-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.840% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)	76.840% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.160% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)	23.160% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.5368	+1.0736
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.7742 (-0.2113)
Redouble/Take:	+0.9855
Redouble/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.0145)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.192.pre-release

My issues with EPC are not the pip adjustment methods but the later formulas for determining T/P and cubeless winning chances.

Messages In This Thread

• cube decision
  steve -- Thursday, 21 March 2013, at 2:11 a.m.
  • cube decision
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 21 March 2013, at 2:38 p.m.
    • cube decision
      Igor -- Thursday, 21 March 2013, at 3:06 p.m.
      • cube decision
        steve -- Thursday, 21 March 2013, at 4:02 p.m.
        • cube decision
          ah_clem -- Thursday, 21 March 2013, at 4:52 p.m.
  • cube decision
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 21 March 2013, at 6:01 p.m.
    • cube decision
      Stick -- Thursday, 21 March 2013, at 8:16 p.m.
    • Reference positions and this EPC BS
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 31 March 2013, at 7:14 a.m.
      • Meant as a reply to the thread below
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 31 March 2013, at 7:16 a.m.
      • Not BS in this position, I think
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 1 April 2013, at 12:10 a.m.
  • GNU 4-ply: cube decision
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 31 March 2013, at 3:18 a.m.