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Question to Neil RE: Indiana 2001 final racing cube

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 1 April 2013, at 3:29 p.m.

In Response To: Question to Neil RE: Indiana 2001 final racing cube (Igor)

Yes. Of course a hint is not the same as a complete answer.

What you can see is that Matussek is assigning 4% winning chances for each effective pip. So if you're close to 100% winning chances then a couple of pips wrong in the estimate will throw you off a lot. However, if in order to get 7% winning chances, you have to adjust the pip count by, say, 4 pips, then the chances are that you're not going to have enough winning chances.

Below 5% winning chances things get difficult but frankly, I don't really care about the difference between 4% and 3% MWC according to some MET that was produced by computers that play much better than I do. The uncertainty in my actual MWC against any opponent is larger than that.

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