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RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 10 April 2013, at 8:27 p.m.

In Response To: Gotta break your 6 prime. (John O'Hagan)

Breaking the 7-point is best. That gives you 16 pointers while only allowing Black to escape past your 8-point with 7 numbers. The downside of this play is that you will be forced to leave a direct with 4 numbers (65,63) vs. zero after clearing the 8-point.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 106 1 point match pip: 95 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--aCBBBBB---bB---abbbb-ba-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10
to play 11

1.	Rollout1	7/6 7/4	eq: +0.630
	Player: Opponent: 81.52% (G:8.97% B:0.29%) 18.48% (G:1.08% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.628...+0.633) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 44 seconds
2.	Rollout1	4/2*(2)	eq: +0.616 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 80.82% (G:8.29% B:0.13%) 19.18% (G:1.42% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.614...+0.619) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 31 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/7 3/2*(3)	eq: +0.606 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 80.31% (G:10.19% B:0.28%) 19.69% (G:1.72% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.603...+0.610) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 27 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/6(2)	eq: +0.578 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 78.89% (G:7.25% B:0.20%) 21.11% (G:1.37% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.575...+0.581) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 32 seconds
5.	Rollout1	8/7 8/5	eq: +0.568 (-0.062)
	Player: Opponent: 78.42% (G:7.07% B:0.23%) 21.58% (G:1.83% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.566...+0.571) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 23 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

Which play is best for money? The results are TCTC after a 5K rollout (with Black owning the cube) between clearing the 7 and switching 4/2. Switching increases your net gammon chances by 0.62% but also increases your opponent's winning chances by 0.75%. Normally this ratio would need to be at least 2/1 (or over 2/1 when the opponent owns the cube as he does here) for the switching play to be correct. Here the ratio is < 1, yet the plays are virtually pick-em. Why is that? The only reason I can think of is that the switching play must give the opponent fewer chances to offer an efficient redouble.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 106 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 95 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--aCBBBBB---bB---abbbb-ba-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
to play 11

1.	Rollout1	7/6 7/4	eq: +0.641
	Player: Opponent: 81.04% (G:9.85% B:0.12%) 18.96% (G:1.62% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.639...+0.644) - [77.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 53 seconds
2.	Rollout1	4/2*(2)	eq: +0.640 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 80.29% (G:11.00% B:0.12%) 19.71% (G:2.15% B:0.05%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.638...+0.643) - [23.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 50 seconds
3.	Rollout2	8/7 3/2*(3)	eq: +0.634 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 80.04% (G:12.01% B:0.15%) 19.96% (G:2.38% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.631...+0.637) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 14 seconds
4.	Rollout3	8/5 3/2*	eq: +0.618 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 78.14% (G:21.77% B:0.48%) 21.86% (G:8.78% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.611...+0.625) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds
5.	Rollout3	8/7 8/6 3/2*	eq: +0.611 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 76.77% (G:21.36% B:0.50%) 23.23% (G:5.58% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.604...+0.619) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 26 seconds
6.	Rollout3	7/6 3/2*(3)	eq: +0.589 (-0.052)
	Player: Opponent: 77.83% (G:14.54% B:0.22%) 22.17% (G:3.29% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.584...+0.594) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 31 seconds
7.	Rollout3	8/6 3/2* 2/1	eq: +0.587 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 76.58% (G:20.26% B:0.59%) 23.42% (G:6.94% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.580...+0.594) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds
8.	Rollout3	8/6(2)	eq: +0.581 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 78.54% (G:9.59% B:0.17%) 21.46% (G:1.92% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.576...+0.586) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds
9.	Rollout3	8/7 8/5	eq: +0.567 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 78.32% (G:8.98% B:0.17%) 21.68% (G:2.30% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.562...+0.571) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

Messages In This Thread

• Gotta break your 6 prime.
  John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 9 April 2013, at 6:01 p.m.
  • Gotta break your 6 prime.
    Chase -- Tuesday, 9 April 2013, at 7:06 p.m.
    • Gotta break your 6 prime.
      rambiz -- Tuesday, 9 April 2013, at 7:38 p.m.
    • Gotta break your 6 prime.
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 9 April 2013, at 7:54 p.m.
      • Gotta break your 6 prime.
        playBunny -- Tuesday, 9 April 2013, at 8:33 p.m.
        • Gotta break your 6 prime.
          Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 9 April 2013, at 8:51 p.m.
          • Gotta break your 6 prime.
            Keene -- Tuesday, 9 April 2013, at 9:03 p.m.
          • Gotta break your 6 prime.
            Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 9 April 2013, at 10:13 p.m.
          • Gotta break your 6 prime.
            playBunny -- Wednesday, 10 April 2013, at 9:17 a.m.
      • Gotta break your 6 prime.
        Chase -- Tuesday, 9 April 2013, at 10:33 p.m.
  • Gotta break your 6 prime.
    Roadkillbooks -- Wednesday, 10 April 2013, at 2:26 a.m.
  • Gotta break your 6 prime.
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 10 April 2013, at 2:27 p.m.
  • RO
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 10 April 2013, at 8:27 p.m.
    • RO
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 11 April 2013, at 1:11 a.m.
      • RO
        John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 11 April 2013, at 2:37 a.m.
  • Gotta break your 6 prime.
    winfox -- Friday, 12 April 2013, at 2:20 a.m.