XG2's biggest "blunder" of all time ?

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XG2's biggest "blunder" of all time ?

Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Sunday, 14 April 2013, at 12:51 p.m.

Prompted by Timothy I decided to revisit this trapping study and am currently digging deeper to see how well XG2 plays it, when I came across this:
Disclaimer: How "accurate" these 3-ply rollouts are is debatable but 7/4 6/4 looks like a decent enough play IMHO. Anyway here are the stats:

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 49

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-----bCBBBBB----A--A---cc-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1. 3-ply 6/4 6/3 eq: +0.572
Player:
Opponent: 71.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.84% (G:8.92% B:0.21%)
2. 3-ply 19/14 eq: +0.512 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent: 67.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.99% (G:6.42% B:0.07%)
3. 3-ply 16/13 6/4 eq: +0.511 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent: 67.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.91% (G:6.65% B:0.08%)
4. 3-ply 16/14 6/3 eq: +0.510 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent: 67.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.77% (G:7.01% B:0.10%)
5. 3-ply 19/17 16/13 eq: +0.507 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent: 66.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.07% (G:6.70% B:0.08%)
6. 3-ply 16/11 eq: +0.506 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent: 66.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.15% (G:6.57% B:0.07%)
7. 3-ply 16/14 7/4 eq: +0.501 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent: 68.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.44% (G:10.77% B:0.39%)
8. 3-ply 19/16 6/4 eq: +0.499 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent: 66.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.32% (G:6.94% B:0.09%)
9. 3-ply 19/17 6/3 eq: +0.497 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent: 66.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.65% (G:6.26% B:0.09%)
10. 3-ply 7/4 6/4 eq: +0.492 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent: 69.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
30.81% (G:13.10% B:0.44%)
11. 3-ply 19/17 7/4 eq: +0.483 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent: 67.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.14% (G:10.89% B:0.40%)
12. 3-ply 6/1 eq: +0.480 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent: 66.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.69% (G:7.93% B:0.11%)
13. 3-ply 19/16 8/6 eq: +0.477 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent: 68.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.73% (G:12.56% B:0.33%)
14. 3-ply 16/13 8/6 eq: +0.474 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent: 67.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.22% (G:11.70% B:0.41%)
15. 3-ply 8/3 eq: +0.472 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent: 67.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.41% (G:11.42% B:0.38%)
16. 3-ply 7/2 eq: +0.470 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent: 67.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.23% (G:11.95% B:0.46%)
17. 3-ply 19/16 10/8 eq: +0.456 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent: 67.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.75% (G:12.27% B:0.32%)
18. 3-ply 10/8 10/7 eq: +0.454 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent: 67.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.02% (G:14.24% B:0.28%)
19. 3-ply 16/13 9/7 eq: +0.449 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent: 66.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.09% (G:12.09% B:0.40%)
20. 3-ply 19/17 11/8 eq: +0.449 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent: 66.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.59% (G:10.91% B:0.42%)
21. 3-ply 9/7 9/6 eq: +0.449 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent: 67.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.77% (G:13.03% B:0.26%)
22. 3-ply 9/4 eq: +0.443 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent: 66.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.11% (G:12.62% B:0.45%)
23. 3-ply 16/14 11/8 eq: +0.431 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent: 66.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.53% (G:12.89% B:0.42%)
24. 3-ply 16/13 10/8 eq: +0.426 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent: 66.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.48% (G:13.44% B:0.47%)
25. 3-ply 11/6 eq: +0.425 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent: 66.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.62% (G:13.23% B:0.43%)
26. 3-ply 16/14 9/6 eq: +0.423 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent: 66.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.85% (G:12.87% B:0.44%)
27. 3-ply 19/17 9/6 eq: +0.422 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent: 66.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.71% (G:13.25% B:0.46%)
28. 3-ply 16/14 10/7 eq: +0.417 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent: 66.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.72% (G:13.75% B:0.45%)
29. 3-ply 11/8 6/4 eq: +0.411 (-0.160)
Player:
Opponent: 66.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.92% (G:13.88% B:0.50%)
30. 3-ply 9/7 6/3 eq: +0.408 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent: 65.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.29% (G:13.34% B:0.45%)
31. 3-ply 19/17 10/7 eq: +0.405 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent: 65.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.32% (G:13.51% B:0.49%)
32. 3-ply 10/7 6/4 eq: +0.396 (-0.176)
Player:
Opponent: 65.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.18% (G:14.62% B:0.59%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 49

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-----bCBBBBB----A--A---cc-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq: +0.685
Player:
Opponent: 71.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.06% (G:9.66% B:0.46%) Conf.: � 0.026 (+0.659...+0.711) - [90.3%]
Duration: 53.2 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 19/17 6/3 eq: +0.652 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent: 70.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
29.14% (G:9.37% B:0.42%) Conf.: � 0.028 (+0.624...+0.680) - [3.9%]
Duration: 33.9 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 16/11 eq: +0.649 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent: 70.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
29.20% (G:8.86% B:0.29%) Conf.: � 0.026 (+0.623...+0.675) - [1.9%]
Duration: 37.1 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 16/13 6/4 eq: +0.647 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent: 70.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
29.58% (G:9.73% B:0.35%) Conf.: � 0.031 (+0.615...+0.678) - [2.7%]
Duration: 45.5 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 16/14 7/4 eq: +0.646 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent: 70.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
29.28% (G:9.92% B:0.53%) Conf.: � 0.024 (+0.622...+0.670) - [1.0%]
Duration: 59.2 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 19/17 16/13 eq: +0.634 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent: 69.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
30.13% (G:9.04% B:0.32%) Conf.: � 0.027 (+0.607...+0.661) - [0.2%]
Duration: 40.4 seconds
7. Rollout¹ 7/2 eq: +0.621 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent: 70.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
29.73% (G:11.52% B:0.64%) Conf.: � 0.026 (+0.595...+0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.7 seconds
8. Rollout¹ 19/16 6/4 eq: +0.616 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent: 69.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
30.84% (G:9.49% B:0.34%) Conf.: � 0.027 (+0.590...+0.643) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32.9 seconds
9. Rollout¹ 19/14 eq: +0.615 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent: 69.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
30.78% (G:9.35% B:0.35%) Conf.: � 0.028 (+0.587...+0.644) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48.0 seconds
10. Rollout¹ 19/17 7/4 eq: +0.602 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent: 69.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
30.90% (G:11.01% B:0.59%) Conf.: � 0.026 (+0.575...+0.628) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.9 seconds
11. Rollout¹ 16/14 6/3 eq: +0.590 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent: 69.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
30.79% (G:11.25% B:0.43%) Conf.: � 0.043 (+0.548...+0.633) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.9 seconds
12. Rollout² 8/3 eq: +0.576 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent: 69.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
30.81% (G:11.87% B:0.57%) Conf.: � 0.025 (+0.551...+0.601) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54.2 seconds
13. Rollout¹ 16/13 8/6 eq: +0.569 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent: 68.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.87% (G:12.08% B:0.58%) Conf.: � 0.030 (+0.539...+0.599) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47.6 seconds
14. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq: +0.556 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent: 67.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.06% (G:12.94% B:0.58%) Conf.: � 0.044 (+0.512...+0.599) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42.2 seconds
15. Rollout¹ 16/13 9/7 eq: +0.544 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent: 67.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.43% (G:11.95% B:0.63%) Conf.: � 0.023 (+0.521...+0.568) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46.6 seconds
16. Rollout² 9/4 eq: +0.542 (-0.143)
Player:
Opponent: 67.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.10% (G:12.85% B:0.60%) Conf.: � 0.030 (+0.512...+0.572) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51.9 seconds
17. Rollout² 10/8 10/7 eq: +0.539 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent: 67.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.75% (G:13.19% B:0.52%) Conf.: � 0.024 (+0.515...+0.563) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52.7 seconds
18. Rollout¹ 19/16 8/6 eq: +0.530 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent: 66.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.01% (G:12.15% B:0.53%) Conf.: � 0.025 (+0.505...+0.555) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds
19. Rollout² 9/7 6/3 eq: +0.522 (-0.163)
Player:
Opponent: 67.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.56% (G:13.41% B:0.55%) Conf.: � 0.021 (+0.501...+0.544) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51.5 seconds
20. Rollout² 9/7 9/6 eq: +0.521 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent: 67.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.35% (G:12.89% B:0.57%) Conf.: � 0.020 (+0.501...+0.541) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52.8 seconds
21. Rollout¹ 16/14 9/6 eq: +0.518 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent: 67.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
32.85% (G:12.82% B:0.59%) Conf.: � 0.024 (+0.494...+0.542) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36.0 seconds
22. Rollout² 10/7 6/4 eq: +0.507 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent: 66.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.75% (G:13.39% B:0.59%) Conf.: � 0.023 (+0.484...+0.531) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40.4 seconds
23. Rollout² 19/16 10/8 eq: +0.507 (-0.178)
Player:
Opponent: 66.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.61% (G:12.97% B:0.42%) Conf.: � 0.024 (+0.483...+0.531) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47.3 seconds
24. Rollout² 16/13 10/8 eq: +0.490 (-0.195)
Player:
Opponent: 65.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.06% (G:13.18% B:0.62%) Conf.: � 0.024 (+0.466...+0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44.3 seconds
25. Rollout² 19/17 9/6 eq: +0.488 (-0.197)
Player:
Opponent: 65.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.26% (G:13.19% B:0.66%) Conf.: � 0.024 (+0.464...+0.512) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47.9 seconds
26. Rollout² 16/14 10/7 eq: +0.487 (-0.198)
Player:
Opponent: 66.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.81% (G:13.02% B:0.50%) Conf.: � 0.022 (+0.466...+0.509) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39.4 seconds
27. Rollout² 19/17 10/7 eq: +0.474 (-0.211)
Player:
Opponent: 65.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.63% (G:13.58% B:0.55%) Conf.: � 0.024 (+0.451...+0.498) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35.0 seconds
28. Rollout¹ 19/17 11/8 eq: +0.464 (-0.221)
Player:
Opponent: 65.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.91% (G:13.86% B:0.71%) Conf.: � 0.027 (+0.437...+0.491) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30.2 seconds
29. Rollout² 16/14 11/8 eq: +0.422 (-0.263)
Player:
Opponent: 63.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
36.13% (G:14.51% B:0.59%) Conf.: � 0.024 (+0.398...+0.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.8 seconds
30. Rollout¹ 11/6 eq: +0.401 (-0.284)
Player:
Opponent: 63.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
36.40% (G:15.70% B:0.58%) Conf.: � 0.025 (+0.376...+0.425) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37.7 seconds
31. Rollout² 11/8 6/4 eq: +0.380 (-0.305)
Player:
Opponent: 62.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.07% (G:16.86% B:0.65%) Conf.: � 0.037 (+0.343...+0.418) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40.7 seconds
32. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/3 eq: +0.186 (-0.500)
Player:
Opponent: 57.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
42.08% (G:21.90% B:1.11%) Conf.: � 0.062 (+0.124...+0.247) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 09 seconds

¹ 497 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

² 496 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

XG2's biggest "blunder" of all time ?
Michael Depreli -- Sunday, 14 April 2013, at 12:51 p.m.
- XG2's biggest "blunder" of all time ?
  mtuhtan -- Sunday, 14 April 2013, at 2:28 p.m.
  - XG2's biggest "blunder" of all time? -- analogy
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 14 April 2013, at 4:19 p.m.
- good old odd-even ply problem?
  mtuhtan -- Sunday, 14 April 2013, at 5:17 p.m.
  - good old odd-even ply problem?
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 14 April 2013, at 6:09 p.m.
- XG2's biggest "blunder" of all time ?
  Christian Sorensen -- Tuesday, 16 April 2013, at 2:50 p.m.

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