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Some variants (bot content)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 18 April 2013, at 2:40 p.m.

In Response To: Woolsey-Jones, Problem 80 (Taper_Mike)

Though it was obvious to Dmitriy and Stick, it wasn't obvious to me why bearing in a third checker immediately wasn't worth risking a couple extra shots. After playing around a bit (see below), I concluded that there are two main reasons: (1) the distribution after 8/6 7/6(2) is bad, and (2) we're actually leaving two blots because of our outfield straggler, so getting hit is extra painful, and the cleanup is a bit awkward even if we're not hit.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 165
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 67
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCbBBCBAB---b--b-b-d-b----:1:-1:1:14:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 14

1.Rollout18/4 7/6eq: +1.171
Player:
Opponent:		 79.49% (G:62.60% B:2.97%)
20.51% (G:0.32% B:0.01%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (+1.165...+1.177)
Duration: 2 minutes 48 seconds
2.Rollout17/3 5/4eq: +1.136 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		 79.03% (G:60.77% B:2.50%)
20.97% (G:0.55% B:0.02%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (+1.130...+1.142)
Duration: 2 minutes 00 second
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 165
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 82
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBbBBCBAB---b--bAb-d-b----:1:-1:1:14:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 14

1.Rollout17/3 5/4eq: +0.971
Player:
Opponent:		 76.50% (G:51.54% B:2.42%)
23.50% (G:1.68% B:0.06%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.965...+0.977)
Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 7/6eq: +0.954 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		 75.44% (G:52.44% B:2.56%)
24.56% (G:1.74% B:0.07%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.948...+0.960)
Duration: 2 minutes 37 seconds
3.Rollout18/7 8/4eq: +0.945 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		 75.46% (G:51.66% B:2.28%)
24.54% (G:1.72% B:0.06%)		Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.937...+0.953)
Duration: 1 minute 54 seconds
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Here's a related position from page 126 of Chris Bray's book Wind Assisted.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 78
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBbBC-B--B------acbbbb--:1:-1:1:35:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 35

1.Rollout111/6 8/5eq: +0.950
Player:
Opponent:		 88.50% (G:22.42% B:0.28%)
11.50% (G:0.61% B:0.02%)		Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.946...+0.954)
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 8/3eq: +0.928 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		 87.39% (G:22.60% B:0.25%)
12.61% (G:0.38% B:0.01%)		Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.923...+0.933)
Duration: 1 minute 00 second
3.Rollout111/3eq: +0.910 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		 87.28% (G:20.53% B:0.20%)
12.72% (G:0.52% B:0.02%)		Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.905...+0.915)
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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