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Basketball Playoffs Probability Question

Posted By: Kevin Whyte
Date: Monday, 29 April 2013, at 6:29 a.m.

In Response To: Basketball Playoffs Probability Question (Kevin Whyte)

My thoughts were badly wrong, I should have learned by now not to try to do probability intuitively. No one has replied to my post, so probably no one cares, but 3-4 fails on both of my supposed virtues:

1) It does not maximize the expected number of games. Since this obviously and directly correlates to revenue, I should have realized the professional leagues would get it right. Maximizing the expected of games means making sure that the games are evenly split when possible, at least starting at the point when the series might end. Travel considerations would point to 2-3-2 here.

2) It does not maximize the chances the final game is a victory for the home team. In fact, it minimizes this probability. Maximizing it means splitting the first 4 as 3-1 for the higher seed (in any order) and then playing games 4-5 at home for the higher seed, and 6-7 at home for the lower seed. With travel factors this would mean a 1-4-2 schedule.

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