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Basketball Playoffs Probability Question

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Monday, 29 April 2013, at 1:39 p.m.

In Response To: Basketball Playoffs Probability Question (Kevin Whyte)

"It does not maximize the chances the final game is a victory for the home team. In fact, it minimizes this probability"

Can you show your assumptions and work here. I think that is worng. Note that 3-4 gives P(final game is home team victory) = P(higher seed wins series) which can be very high if the better seed is a much better team. Your suggested 3-1-1-2 often means the higher seed clinches on the road in game 4, 6, or 7.

Also why should maximizing that chance be a goal? Note that that the television audience dwarfs the stadium audience.

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