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Cube decision after a horrible crashing sequence

Posted By: Smcrtorchs
Date: Sunday, 5 May 2013, at 10:16 p.m.

In Response To: Cube decision after a horrible crashing sequence (lucky)

While I agree with Timothy's remarks, I would like to try and become a bit more specific. Not because i am good at things like that, but just because I find it difficult. Writing this post, would probably help me clear my thoughts more than it would help you, (consider yourself warned :P).

Since i have to assume something and since the score is 0-0 I will assume for my analysis that Neil has no real knowledge for his opponents cube handling so far. I expect that many weaker than Neil players (100-150 elo points) would not understand well the structure of blue's checkers. Having the 2,3 and 4 points open is not something that everyone is comfortable with. Therefore I would expect that if Neil hits a checker and white enters or fans, there is a good chance that a weaker opponent would pass if Neil doubles him then. As i do not believe that this position is not a big theoritical double, white's mistake could be pretty big next turn. Therefore I believe that Neil should wait a turn against such an opp. But I would expect this to be a small possibility if opponent was only 50 elo points weaker than Neil. Examining the matter further, Neil would like to hold the cube against a weaker opp because

1) opponents has higher recube vig. 2) of the difference in gammonprices for both players as the MET changes 3) of the different winning percentages for the 2 players for the same score.

As an opponents recube would kill the gammons, the recube vig should be low for Neil's opponent and so are the differences of the gammonprices for both players for an 8 cube at -11-11. This means that Neil can more or less forget about those factors. Moreover there is the chance that his opponent will not redouble optimally nor will he be able to win all the gammons possible, so there is really no point at all to take these factors into consideration even as very small ones.

Now, I might be quite wrong, but at least according to my notebook, fishe's takepoint should be around 2.4% lower for an 8 cube at the score. Now I am not sure if the 50 points weaker player would make no errors, but I believe that his errors would be small and therefore I will assume that 2% should be deducted from his normal takepoint.

After very limited practice with the 2 fish MET that GNU has, my very limited experience tells me that when a double is close to no double then a 2% lower takepoint can make it a clear no double. If the double no double decision is not very close here then this would still leave it as a theoretical double. Well I am not sure how close it is, and if it is a theoretical double against such an opp, but I believe it is quite close. In the end, I would guess that Neil should also hold the cube against an opp 50 points weaker, because of the small chance that opp has to error next turn.

If you are still with me and after noticing your email, I wonder if we have met in a GBF tournament in Athens. My name is Χαράλαμπος (Charalampos).

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