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Mochy vs. Nishizawa 12 Off and 2 on the Roof 3-ply XG2 Rollout
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: Mochy vs. Nishizawa 12 Off and 2 on the Roof (Taper_Mike)
Date: Sunday, 5 May 2013, at 10:58 p.m.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 51Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 36
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=bDCBB-B-----------------a-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 31
1. Rollout1 6/3 1/Off eq: +0.2740
Player:
Opponent:68.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
31.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)Conf.: ±0.0031 (+0.2709...+0.2772) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19.0 seconds2. Rollout1 3/2 3/Off eq: +0.2230 (-0.0510)
Player:
Opponent:66.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
33.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)Conf.: ±0.0036 (+0.2194...+0.2266) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.3 seconds3. Rollout1 3/Off 1/Off eq: +0.1795 (-0.0946)
Player:
Opponent:65.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)Conf.: ±0.0044 (+0.1751...+0.1839) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58.1 seconds4. Rollout1 6/5 6/3 eq: +0.1489 (-0.1252)
Player:
Opponent:62.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)Conf.: ±0.0033 (+0.1455...+0.1522) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19.8 seconds5. Rollout1 4/3 4/1 eq: +0.1381 (-0.1359)
Player:
Opponent:62.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)Conf.: ±0.0036 (+0.1345...+0.1417) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19.0 seconds1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14788862
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerRollout by Taper_Mike
2013-May-04
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000799.xgpeXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Last year, I read a post by Timothy Chow at rgb that argues breaking from the rear is often correct in positions such as this. I am not certain whether this post is the one, but it does a good job making the case, nevertheless. The explanation is that breaking from the rear allows you to hold your board longer, which is the real key to victory. If you are going to win, you need to keep your opponent on the roof. That means keeping a strong board as long as you can. Thanks to Timothys training, I try to avoid opening a gap on one of the lower points. That plan may not always be best, but it is always my starting point for analysis.
After 6/3 1/off, there are a good many rolls that allow Blue to keep a four-point board through the next exchange. With 3/off 1/off, on the other hand, Blue will be forced off one of his high points in almost all variations, leaving him with only a three-point board.
Another factor to consider is gaps. With two on the roof, Blue is likely get in trouble even after his opponent enters. If his opponent is able to enter one of his checkers on the 3pt, he can leave it there, while he runs the other around the board. Compare that to the circumstance where the opponent has only one checker on the bar. In that case, he has fewer chances to linger after entering.
In the video, which is only labeled by its time stamp, Saturday at 1:08am, Nishizawa ripped two, and then suffered an unfair punishment when Mochy rolled 33! After that, the only hits were made by Mochy, as he scrambled home to win the game and match.
Mike
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