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Backgame Fun! — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 5 May 2013, at 11:22 p.m.

In Response To: Backgame Fun! (Taper_Mike)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 109
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bbCBBCB-----A-aAc-daAb---:1:-1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31
1.Rollout121/18 13/12eq: +0.8839
Player:
Opponent:		78.94% (G:36.47% B:4.70%)
21.06% (G:1.98% B:0.09%)		Conf.: ±0.0046 (+0.8793...+0.8885) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout121/18 6/5eq: +0.8715 (-0.0124)
Player:
Opponent:		78.38% (G:36.53% B:4.92%)
21.62% (G:1.98% B:0.09%)		Conf.: ±0.0049 (+0.8666...+0.8764) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout121/18 16/15* eq: +0.8568 (-0.0271)
Player:
Opponent:		76.00% (G:39.06% B:6.05%)
24.00% (G:1.10% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ±0.0052 (+0.8516...+0.8620) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 15 seconds
4.Rollout116/15* 15/12eq: +0.8294 (-0.0545)
Player:
Opponent:		74.64% (G:39.31% B:6.78%)
25.36% (G:1.13% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ±0.0063 (+0.8231...+0.8356) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 51 seconds
5.Rollout116/15* 13/10eq: +0.8154 (-0.0685)
Player:
Opponent:		74.35% (G:39.04% B:6.67%)
25.65% (G:1.20% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ±0.0063 (+0.8091...+0.8217) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14788862
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013-May-04
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000798.xgp

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

After this move, Blue will lead by only 50 pips. That is hardly enough timing for a hapless White to engineer victory from a deep 21 backgame.

By eschewing the hit, and hopping out to the 18pt, Blue leaves only 20 direct shots (plus an anchor-destroying fly shot). Fully 16 times in 36, White will miss the direct shot, and Blue will have the pleasure of waltzing home while he watches White struggle to prevent crashing. And when Blue is hit, he will probably have to hit back, but in most variations he will easily escape. Seldom can White win by going forward from here.

So, if the worst that can happen by not hitting now is that Blue will be forced to hit later, there is little incentive to hit.

Mike

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