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43 for White

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 6 May 2013, at 9:07 p.m.

In Response To: 43 for White (John O'Hagan)

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 59
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 91
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=---CBCCBb----AA------c-cg-:2:-1:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
to play 43

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

The choice seems to be between leaving one blot or two.

If Blue leaves one blot, he can choose either the 13pt or 14pt. Between these, the 14pt seems better, because it cannot be passed when the opponent rolls a 6. White’s 41 also plays better for Blue when he stays on the 14pt.

White can hit a blot on the 14pt with seventeen rolls: any 6, plus 22, 33, 42, and 51. When White does hit, he will often play both checkers from the rear, rather than run one checker using both dice. That way, he minimizes the number of fly shots Blue will have from the bar. So, if White can hit on the 14pt, it looks like Blue will be looking at only a single fly shot in return. He will need a 65 to hit it.

In case White cannot hit, ten rolls, 41, 43, 52, 53, and 54, will force him to leave a direct shot in the outfield. 41 is a disaster for him. It leaves a double shot. Seven low rolls, 11, 21, 31, and 32, as well as the doublets 44 and 55, all play safely. Although it is not clear whether White would hit with 22, it was counted as a hitting number. Therefore, Blue would have a direct shot after eight of White’s rolls, and a double direct after two others.

When Blue leaves two outside blots, White can hit at least one of them with twenty-eight rolls: any 5 or 6, plus 22, 32, 33, 41, and 42. From the bar, Blue would typically have fly shots at two different targets.

White can play safely with six of the rolls that do not hit: 11, 21, 31, and 44. Only 43 will force a shot.

While this analysis ignores the many other chances Blue would have after being hit, focusing solely on his immediate shots and return shots, it seems clear that bringing one checker in is the way to go.

O (Outer) = 13/6

Mike

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