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Rollout: Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 6 May 2013, at 11:49 p.m.

In Response To: Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it (Timothy Chow)

I played 8/2(2) 7/1*(2) and although I didn't feel confident about it, I was surprised to see that the computer favored 10/4(2) 7/1*(2). Of course 10/4(2) is nice and pure, but the extra blots and shots seemed too costly to me. My first post-mortem thought was the duplication of 5's, but for example shifting White's blot on her 8pt to her 9pt to partially unduplicate 5's doesn't seem to change much (not shown here).

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 144 Money session Jacoby pip: 113 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---bECD-C-aa---abbbba---:1:-1:1:66:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 66

1.	Rollout1	10/4(2) 7/1*(2)	eq: +0.437
	Player: Opponent: 70.43% (G:18.55% B:0.83%) 29.57% (G:5.48% B:0.17%) Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.431...+0.443) Duration: 6 hours 16 minutes
2.	Rollout1	10/4(2) 8/2(2)	eq: +0.410 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 68.40% (G:20.49% B:1.41%) 31.60% (G:4.87% B:0.17%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.402...+0.418) Duration: 5 hours 26 minutes
3.	Rollout2	8/2(2) 7/1*(2)	eq: +0.377 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 67.98% (G:18.61% B:0.81%) 32.02% (G:5.57% B:0.22%) Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.365...+0.389) Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes
4.	Rollout2	10/4(3) 7/1*	eq: +0.368 (-0.070)
	Player: Opponent: 70.23% (G:15.15% B:0.30%) 29.77% (G:4.53% B:0.16%) Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.355...+0.381) Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 1003 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 5 May 2013, at 6:30 p.m.
  • Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it
    lenny -- Sunday, 5 May 2013, at 10:12 p.m.
    • Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 6 May 2013, at 12:48 a.m.
  • Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 6 May 2013, at 1:20 a.m.
  • Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it
    Igor -- Monday, 6 May 2013, at 5:20 a.m.
    • Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it
      Sam Pottle -- Monday, 6 May 2013, at 5:43 a.m.
      • Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it
        Igor -- Monday, 6 May 2013, at 5:53 a.m.
  • Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it
    ah_clem -- Monday, 6 May 2013, at 3:57 p.m.
    • Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it
      Sam Pottle -- Monday, 6 May 2013, at 6:20 p.m.
  • Rollout: Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 6 May 2013, at 11:49 p.m.
    • Rollout: Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it
      Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 7 May 2013, at 5:04 a.m.
      • Rollout: Looks like an easy roll to play until you try to play it
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 7 May 2013, at 4:06 p.m.
  • Looks like an easy roll to play... variant + RO
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 7 May 2013, at 4:35 p.m.
    • Looks like an easy roll to play... variant + RO
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 7 May 2013, at 11:20 p.m.