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Rollout

Posted By: Chase
Date: Wednesday, 8 May 2013, at 3:20 a.m.

In Response To: More free advertising for Stick (Timothy Chow)

Not quite 100% confidence interval on the double decision, but close enough for jazz.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 186
Unlimited Game
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-c-b-BEBC---bB---a-cbbA---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.14% (G:28.67% B:3.16%) 63.05% (G:28.77% B:3.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.86% (G:6.08% B:0.27%) 36.95% (G:6.27% B:0.28%)
Cubeless Equities +0.518 +1.030
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.729±0.005 (+0.724..+0.734)
Double/Take:+0.720 (-0.008)±0.006 (+0.714..+0.727)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.271)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.9%
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 4
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:98.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 20 hours 50 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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