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BGonline.org Forums
XG1 rollout, and remarks on psychology
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: More free advertising for Stick (Timothy Chow)
Date: Thursday, 9 May 2013, at 12:48 a.m.
This was a peculiar case where my opponent's psychological strategy paid off. When I say "psychological strategy," let me point out that my opponent was XG! I was playing White, and XG 3-ply doubled me. This took me by surprise. What, I thought, is the computer doing doubling me here? I figured it must know something I didn't. As I studied the position I noted that my timing wasn't very good, Blue had a four-prime already…and I passed! I'm sure I wouldn't have passed against a human opponent but somehow the bot's unexpected double caused me to lose confidence in my ability to assess the position.
Now for the QF surrounding my comment about asking for an XG2 rollout. I wanted to ask for an XG2 rollout, not because the doubling decision was close, but just because there has been a lot of talk about how XG2 is better at backgames than XG1 is. So I was curious whether there would be a difference. I would have been curious whether or not the doubling decision happened to be close. But naturally, I recognized that putting the request directly in the original post would generate a kind of QF, most likely causing people to "round up" or "round down" to the nearest boundary (as Stick did). But even though in this particular position, the decision was a borderline decision, I decided that the QF was actually not a bad thing, because in a way, it simulated the psychological effect I experienced OTB when the computer paused to think, and then doubled. Any readers who thought that the double was clear here might therefore be tricked into passing, for psychological reasons.
It's hard to know if my bluff worked on anyone, since I believe that most BGO readers are afraid of posting an answer to a difficult-looking position without checking a bot first, but I like to think that it did.
White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 186Money session pip: 126
score: 0
Blue is Player 2XGID=-c-b-BEBC---bB---a-cbbA---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No Double Player Winning Chances: 63.16% (G: 29.04% B: 3.41%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.84% (G: 5.80% B: 0.25%) Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.64% (G: 29.61% B: 3.56%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.36% (G: 5.66% B: 0.24%) Cubeless Equities No Double: +0.527 Double: +1.091 Cubeful Equities No Double: +0.761 (-0.016) Double/Take: +0.776 Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.224) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 plyConfidence No Double: ± 0.024 (+0.737...+0.784) Confidence Double: ± 0.028 (+0.748...+0.805) Double Decision confidence: 79.8% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 9 hours 05 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
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