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A Heuristic For Playing The 21 Opening Roll ATS
Posted By: AdamStocks In Response To: A Heuristic For Playing The 21 Opening Roll ATS (Taper_Mike)
Date: Friday, 10 May 2013, at 9:41 a.m.
Firstly, I just need to reiterate the fact that my rule of thumb is only meant as an interim guide in lieu of rollout data that would make it more accurate. I'm sure, like many players, XG often tells me off for misplaying 2-1 at various scores, and using a rule like this (albeit far from perfect) can improve one's accuracy compared to more or less guessing because I havn't studied rollout data etc. I've just been chatting with a highly respected world class player who critisized the usefulness of it because, I think, he missed the point of the purpose of it - ie being an improvement on my own play before having the chance to refine it with rollouts. Having said that, here are the differences between my heuristic and xg's standard analysis:
4a 5a Slot Split 0.0087 0.064% 6a 4a Split Slot 0.0013 0.009% 6a 6a Split Slot 0.0020 0.013% 7a 6a Split Slot 0.0031 0.020% 8a 6a Split Slot 0.0001 0.001% 10a 8a Split Slot 0.0011 0.006% 11a 9a Split Slot 0.0008 0.004% 14a 11a Slot Split 0.0029 0.013% 1a 3aCr Split Slot 0.0001 0.000% 1a 5aCr Slot Split 0.0041 0.064%
Sorry for the linear formatting but each score is followed by XG2's play, Stocks heuristic play, EMG error, MWC% error. I quoted a slightly different total MWC% error earlier -just a typo on my part. (god I was tired when I did all this last night after the nack tourny!). As you can see, the two main differences are 4a 5a and 1a 5aCr. As for rollouts - I havn't got that far yet. That is why this heuristic is only an interim method to do better than guesswork. It's not intended to be a definitive methodology for playing 21 flawlessly.
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