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Rollout

Posted By: Klaus Evers
Date: Monday, 13 May 2013, at 4:29 a.m.

In Response To: leading 3a6a, cube action ? (Klaus Evers)

My personal guideline when leading 3a is never to cube when there is a substantial amount of gammons to be won. Therefore, I am very surprised that the B position is a T, when I can win a lot more G compared to A.

Well, live and learn.

A)





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 142
7 point match
pip: 122
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--abABDBC----B--acbdA--b--:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78,96% (G:16,19% B:1,24%) 79,03% (G:18,30% B:2,70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21,04% (G:3,29% B:0,13%) 20,97% (G:3,30% B:0,28%)
Cubeless Equities +0,751 +1,464
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,917 (-0,083)±0,009 (+0,909..+0,926)
Double/Take:+1,150 (+0,150)±0,015 (+1,134..+1,165)
Double/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 15 minutes 31 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point

B)





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 139
7 point match
pip: 123
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--bABCBE----A--acac-b-bA-:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75,19% (G:26,46% B:2,00%) 75,07% (G:27,89% B:4,81%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24,81% (G:4,45% B:0,10%) 24,93% (G:4,50% B:0,14%)
Cubeless Equities +0,795 +1,417
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,854 (-0,123)±0,012 (+0,842..+0,866)
Double/Take:+0,978±0,017 (+0,961..+0,994)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,022)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:99,6%
Duration: 17 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point

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