[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Rollout: How to play the 3

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 17 May 2013, at 3:04 p.m.

In Response To: How to play the 3 (leobueno)

Leo never posted a rollout for this one so I took the liberty of doing one myself.

I would have expected 13/10 to come out on top, with 18/15 about 0.050 back and 16/13 about 0.100 back. That 18/15 is so close is surprising to me. I find that when faced with this sort of position—a blitz that is in some danger of turning around—most people (including my former self) are too quick to make the transition from blitzing to shuffling their back checkers around and worrying about safety. My guess is that Leo played 16/13 and couldn't understand why it was so bad. Nobody who posted here mentioned 16/13 as a candidate, because it's intuitively clear to an experienced player that stacking up with 16/13 significantly reduces flexibility and connectivity and isn't really any safer than 18/15.

However, it seems that I need to dial back my own aggressiveness a bit. As Leo's position here and David Rennie's recent position suggest, I'm not giving enough respect to White's three-point board when White is on the bar. White's forward position is strong enough that we need to have second thoughts about going all-out for the blitz.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
Money session
pip: 146
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaAB-BCb----bD--AbAc-b-bA-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout113/10 6/2eq: +0.465
Player:
Opponent:		 59.15% (G:27.39% B:1.58%)
40.85% (G:14.76% B:1.00%)		Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.453...+0.477)
Duration: 10 hours 02 minutes
2.Rollout118/15 6/2eq: +0.457 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		 59.10% (G:25.64% B:1.61%)
40.90% (G:13.55% B:0.62%)		Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.447...+0.467)
Duration: 8 hours 19 minutes
3.Rollout216/13 6/2eq: +0.361 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:		 57.29% (G:23.57% B:1.31%)
42.71% (G:13.80% B:0.57%)		Conf: ± 0.018 (+0.343...+0.379)
Duration: 4 hours 23 minutes
1 6482 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

2 2015 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.