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BGonline.org Forums
More trials
Posted By: Tom Keith In Response To: Simulation (Tom Keith)
Date: Saturday, 18 May 2013, at 2:45 p.m.
I ran the simulation out to 200,000,000 trials and now there appears to be a small but statistically significant advantage to the strongest players of awarding byes first to the players with the fewest losses. Here are the numbers:
Probability of winning the tournament
when byes are first given to ...Difference
Players with
most lossesPlayers with
fewest lossesPlayer #1 0.04137 0.04150 −0.00013 Player #2 0.03995 0.04003 −0.00008 Player #3 0.03854 0.03865 −0.00012 Player #4 0.03721 0.03725 −0.00004 Player #5 0.03591 0.03594 −0.00003 Player #6 0.03463 0.03469 −0.00006 Player #7 0.03339 0.03345 −0.00006 Player #8 0.03217 0.03221 −0.00004 Player #9 0.03101 0.03108 −0.00007 Player #10 0.02989 0.02995 −0.00005 Player #11 0.02884 0.02886 −0.00002 Player #12 0.02775 0.02777 −0.00002 Player #13 0.02675 0.02676 −0.00001 Player #14 0.02576 0.02579 −0.00004 Player #15 0.02481 0.02483 −0.00001 Player #16 0.02387 0.02392 −0.00005 Player #17 0.02299 0.02299 +0.00001 Player #18 0.02212 0.02215 −0.00003 Player #19 0.02125 0.02127 −0.00002 Player #20 0.02046 0.02048 −0.00002 Player #21 0.01969 0.01969 +0.00000 Player #22 0.01893 0.01894 −0.00001 Player #23 0.01819 0.01822 −0.00003 Player #24 0.01749 0.01748 +0.00001 Player #25 0.01680 0.01681 −0.00001 Player #26 0.01615 0.01612 +0.00004 Player #27 0.01551 0.01550 +0.00001 Player #28 0.01491 0.01489 +0.00001 Player #29 0.01431 0.01428 +0.00003 Player #30 0.01372 0.01372 +0.00000 Player #31 0.01319 0.01315 +0.00004 Player #32 0.01264 0.01262 +0.00003 Player #33 0.01212 0.01211 +0.00001 Player #34 0.01162 0.01161 +0.00001 Player #35 0.01114 0.01113 +0.00001 Player #36 0.01068 0.01066 +0.00002 Player #37 0.01024 0.01022 +0.00002 Player #38 0.00982 0.00980 +0.00002 Player #39 0.00939 0.00937 +0.00001 Player #40 0.00900 0.00897 +0.00004 Player #41 0.00862 0.00859 +0.00004 Player #42 0.00824 0.00822 +0.00002 Player #43 0.00789 0.00787 +0.00003 Player #44 0.00755 0.00753 +0.00002 Player #45 0.00722 0.00719 +0.00002 Player #46 0.00690 0.00688 +0.00002 Player #47 0.00660 0.00657 +0.00003 Player #48 0.00631 0.00628 +0.00003 Player #49 0.00604 0.00600 +0.00004 Player #50 0.00576 0.00573 +0.00002 Player #51 0.00550 0.00547 +0.00003 Player #52 0.00525 0.00522 +0.00003 Player #53 0.00501 0.00497 +0.00004 Player #54 0.00477 0.00476 +0.00001 Player #55 0.00456 0.00452 +0.00004 Player #56 0.00435 0.00432 +0.00003 Player #57 0.00414 0.00412 +0.00002 Player #58 0.00395 0.00393 +0.00002 Player #59 0.00377 0.00374 +0.00003 Player #60 0.00359 0.00356 +0.00003 Player #61 0.00341 0.00339 +0.00002 Player #62 0.00325 0.00323 +0.00002 Player #63 0.00310 0.00307 +0.00003
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