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Isn't 11 supposed to be better than this?

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 19 May 2013, at 12:40 a.m.

In Response To: Isn't 11 supposed to be better than this? (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 137
7 point match
pip: 158
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B--a-C-C---dEb----e-c--AA:0:0:1:11:3:3:0:7:10
Blue to play 11

The big decision is whether to hit or not.

It is often correct not to hit loose with the last spare on your 6pt, but what is the alternative here? Hitting demotes many of White’s rolls of 6 from good numbers that escape or point, into poor numbers that, at the least, will force him to leave a shot in the outer board. With a made 1pt, and a race deficit, attacking makes sense more than trying to race or prime.

Next is to choose the final ace. My first instinct was to split the back checkers, but upon reflection I chose the slot. Moving 8/7 adds only 52 to the list of rolls that White can use to hit back. His 61 is blocked, and 43 is duped. Having noted that Blue’s best strategy might be to attack, and having also noted Blue’s stripped 6pt, a builder on the 7pt should be a plus.

In addition, splitting the back checkers in front of a dilly builder and stack carries negatives of its own.

Mike

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