Most people seem to be satisfied with guessing the top play of the rollout, but my goal is to understand what's happening in the position. What I'm scratching my head over is why making the 9pt is so close. I didn't even consider it, which in itself is a mistake. It looks like nobody else who responded regarded 15/9 13/9 as a serious candidate either. I guess it's a bit more flexible but shouldn't leaving the direct shot make it a 0.060 error or worse?
         
 
       
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 132 | | Money session | pip: 117
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BC-bBC-----bB-Abb-cBb-b--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/5 | eq: +0.015 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.86% (G:9.98% B:0.24%)
49.14% (G:10.02% B:0.34%) | Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.005...+0.025)
Duration: 4 hours 59 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/9 13/9 | eq: -0.007 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.70% (G:8.91% B:0.19%)
50.30% (G:8.26% B:0.32%) | Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.017...+0.003)
Duration: 5 hours 07 minutes |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Here's a variant but I'm not sure it tells us much.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 129 | | Money session | pip: 117
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BC-bBC-----bB-Abb-bBbab--:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/9 13/9 | eq: +0.055 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.36% (G:9.94% B:0.26%)
48.64% (G:8.44% B:0.33%) | Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.041...+0.069)
Duration: 57 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/5 | eq: -0.032 (-0.087) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.22% (G:10.24% B:0.27%)
50.78% (G:11.16% B:0.35%) | Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.046...-0.018)
Duration: 54 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21