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Rollout Result And Comment

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 29 May 2013, at 12:11 p.m.

In Response To: Bonus Back Game Checker Play Problem (Paul Weaver)

Blue has a six-prime and White has six checkers back. Blue wants to keep White from making a second anchor and Blue also wants to get more White checkers behind his prime. After 5/1* 4/2*, Blue still has a five-prime with a chance to get two or three more White checkers behind his prime. This play maximizes Blue's winning chances (89%), gammon chances (64%) and backgammon chances (8%).

Scroll down to see the diagram of the position after the best play.

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 172 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 108 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaacBCBBBBA----A--b-abaab-:1:-1:1:24:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 24

1.Rollout15/1* 4/2* eq: +1.432
 Player:Opponent: 88.93% (G:63.57% B:7.40%)11.07% (G:0.68% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+1.418...+1.446) - [100.0%]Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout110/8 5/1* eq: +1.379 (-0.053)
 Player:Opponent: 87.61% (G:61.83% B:6.78%)12.39% (G:0.54% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+1.369...+1.390) - [0.0%]Duration: 3 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout115/13 5/1* eq: +1.376 (-0.056)
 Player:Opponent: 87.48% (G:61.90% B:6.81%)12.52% (G:0.63% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+1.366...+1.386) - [0.0%]Duration: 3 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout18/2* eq: +1.373 (-0.059)
 Player:Opponent: 86.86% (G:62.27% B:7.73%)13.14% (G:0.78% B:0.05%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+1.362...+1.384) - [0.0%]Duration: 3 minutes 14 seconds
5.Rollout19/7 5/1* eq: +1.365 (-0.068)
 Player:Opponent: 86.95% (G:62.00% B:6.86%)13.05% (G:0.70% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+1.354...+1.375) - [0.0%]Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds
6.Rollout18/6 5/1* eq: +1.356 (-0.076)
 Player:Opponent: 86.48% (G:62.60% B:6.77%)13.52% (G:0.87% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+1.347...+1.366) - [0.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 47 seconds
7.Rollout17/1* eq: +1.345 (-0.088)
 Player:Opponent: 86.29% (G:61.91% B:6.89%)13.71% (G:1.04% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+1.333...+1.357) - [0.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 43 seconds
8.Rollout210/6 4/2* eq: +1.285 (-0.147)
 Player:Opponent: 86.77% (G:56.92% B:5.67%)13.23% (G:0.73% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.028 (+1.257...+1.314) - [0.0%]Duration: 27.6 seconds
9.Rollout310/4eq: +1.276 (-0.156)
 Player:Opponent: 86.47% (G:56.24% B:5.05%)13.53% (G:0.88% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.023 (+1.253...+1.300) - [0.0%]Duration: 19.3 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 158 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 159 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 102 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 175 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=cAAcABBBBBA----A--b-abaab-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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