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How does XG+ get this bearoff cube so wrong?

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 30 May 2013, at 12:00 a.m.

In Response To: How does XG+ get this bearoff cube so wrong? (Michael Petch)

You may be onto something, Mike. The evals below show that XG gets this right in unlimited games. Whatever the problem is must be related to match play. In match play, I get exactly the same numbers as Bob. XGR+ gets it badly wrong, while 4-ply and XGR++ have it right.

Another possibility I investigated was that XGR+ may not be doing sufficient lookahead. So I checked the settings used by the truncated rollout we call XGR+.

  • 360 games with VR
  • Truncated after 7 moves using 2-ply
  • Stop when reaching 0.010 Confidence (minimum 180 games)
  • First 2 decision in 2-ply
  • Then 1-ply checker and 2-ply cube

Because the first two decisions are made in 2-ply, XG should have a chance to properly recube before all the 1-ply stuff kicks in.

Mike

Unlimited Games, 4-ply Eval
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 7
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 7
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---AA-------------a-------:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in 4-ply No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.170% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 66.170% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.830% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 33.830% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.3234 +0.6468
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.3256 (-0.0324)
Redouble/Take:+0.3580
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.6420)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Unlimited Games, XG Roller+ Eval
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 7
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 7
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---AA-------------a-------:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller+ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.170% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 66.170% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.830% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 33.830% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.3234 +0.6468
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.3256 (-0.0324)
Redouble/Take:+0.3580
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.6420)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Unlimited Games, XG Roller++ Eval
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 7
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 7
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---AA-------------a-------:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.170% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 66.170% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.830% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 33.830% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.3234 +0.6468
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.3256 (-0.0324)
Redouble/Take:+0.3580
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.6420)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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