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54 - RO

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 31 May 2013, at 4:53 p.m.

In Response To: 54 - RO (smcrtorchs)

It's easy to come up with "after-the-rollout" explanations as to why the best play is best. It's not necessarily easy to assign the CORRECT reasoning, however.

I mentioned the downside of stripping the last spare off the 6-point but don't see a way to modify the position to test this, as putting a second spare there changes the position too much, IMO.

One thing worth at least considering here (preferably before making your OtB play :) is "what's the worst that can happen if you don't hit this turn?" Note that it's difficult for White to just escape both checkers past your midpoint, even in two rolls. If he anchors on your 7-point you've got him covered with your midpoint. Given the race/timing, that plays into Blue's favor. Meanwhile if he doesn't move the checker on the 2-point you now will be in position to PoH or at least attack with multiple cover options.

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