(1) In the first two alternate positions (where Blue has the deuce or ace point anchor instead of the three point), the rollout setting "keep the first 0 0-ply moves" means those rollouts used 0-ply checker play, not 2-ply. This makes some difference, for example:
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 7 points)
Move number 3: Blue to play 45
| White | 126 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
                        | |||
| Blue | 140 | ||
| Position ID: uM0dQBDMzoYBGA Match ID: cAn2AAAAAAAE | |||
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | 1 | R | 23/18 6/2* | -0.161 | ||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 360 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 679498996 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | R | 23/14 | -0.329 ( -0.168) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 360 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 679498996 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | R | 13/8 6/2* | -0.419 ( -0.258) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 360 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 679498996 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | R | 9/5 9/4 | -0.444 ( -0.282) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 360 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 679498996 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(2) "Timing" -- "how long you expect to retain the desirable features of a position compared to your opponent -- does not strike me as the right word to use to explain any difference between the first two alternates and the original. In the alternates, the anchor has been moved back to the 2 point and then to the ace point. This adds 2 and 4 pips to Blue's pip count -- which if anything might help, not hurt, Blue's timing, but makes no difference here. The extra pips don't help Blue maintain any desirable positional features. Any little numbers that he might be able to play with his back checkers he'll use instead to improve his front position. And Blue is significantly changing, not maintaining, his position, with whatever move he makes with his 54.
http://www.bkgm.com/gloss/lookup.cgi?timing
(3) If anything, Blue seems less, not more, "hemmed in" with the deuce or ace point anchor. He has more ways to reach the open point in the prime than in the original position, where only direct fours work. With the anchor on the 2 point, the particular 54 roll is especially nice, since while attacking 6/2* Blue can use the 5 to make a bid to escape with 23/18, without having to give up his 13 point. But Blue is only less "hemmed in" at the moment, however, which means that if an attack succeeds now, he'll have less trouble escaping his back checkers than in the original position. However, with Blue's anchor not at the edge of the prime, White has many ways to use his spares to improve the prime, which means it's more urgent for Blue to attack now while he can, and not play passively.
(4) Other than the felicitous tempo move 23/18 6/2* that is available to when Blue's anchor is five five pips from the open spot in the prime, I think that the main difference we're seeing in the original and the first two alternate positions is simply that moving Blue's anchor back from the three point to the deuce or ace point means Blue wins fewer games and loses more gammons, which makes it more urgent for Blue to attack 23/18 6/2* with the deuce point anchor and 13/8 6/2* with the ace point anchor, instead of minimizing the number of White's most dangerous rolls by playing 9/5 9/4. With the inferior anchors, Blue can less afford to wait to play an anchor game, which makes it more worth Blue's while to attack even though 6/2* gives White a few more ways to return with a hitting number.
(5) In the third alternate position where Blue's has his 14 point instead of his 13 point, I think it's worth pointing out that "Blue no longer covers the 7 point with 13" means that Blue and White's outfield blots aren't in direct range of each other -- that is, if Blue's not covering the 7 point from the 14, then White's not covering Blue's 14 point from White's 7 point, either. And that's what makes 14/9 6/2* a much more appealing play than 13/8 6/2* was in the original position, since White's 16 and 46 returns can't hit, 26 can't hit twice, and neither 46 nor 26 lets White move past Blue's guard on Blue's 14 point.