More Adventures in Blunderland ***ROLLOUT***
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: More Adventures in Blunderland ***ROLLOUT*** (David Rennie)
Date: Sunday, 2 June 2013, at 8:26 p.m.
In Response To: More Adventures in Blunderland ***ROLLOUT*** (David Rennie)
Dvaid wrote: The first thing you better players thought of was how to safety that back man. The first thing I thought of was the race and, being behind in it, I should stay back.
I don't think this is quite right. I imagine others also thought first of the race, but to David's thought "I'm behind in the race," added: but only by 5 pips, 118 to 123 after the play, and racing, or at least reducing contact, may very well present Blue's best winning chance, even though Blue is behind in the pip count. I imagine they also, like David, then considered that keeping a guard on the 23 point might be useful, and that only some numbers could point on the 2 point, but realized that "some numbers" is 25% of White's rolls next turn, that White can use every other roll to safety or advance White's own straggler, and that after the straggler is safe, Blue's guard will not prove to be much of a guard: first becauseWhite would be able to play anything except 61 62 or 65 safely, and second because Blue would repeatedly face the problem of having to advance from the 23 point anyway (if he still can) or give up his midpoint, a useful point for as long as White has not yet cleared his own.
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