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42 for White

Posted By: Michael Sullivan
Date: Monday, 3 June 2013, at 4:26 p.m.

In Response To: 42 for White (ah_clem)

I know what you mean about six blots, but it's hard to see a path to winning the game without hitting the shot we have right now. Black has already cleared the midpoint, so our bar pt anchor doesn't look like getting many more shot opportunities, and our back checker is as much a liability as an asset. Unlike KenB I don't think this score is neither fish nor fowl, but very definitely gammon-save. Perhaps he missed the fact that we are holding a 2 cube?

I guess the safest play is to advance the back checker. That makes us very unlikely to be gammoned, and we still have a few shot + racing chances. hitting will win the game a lot more, but also lose a gammon a lot more.

If we hit white has 13 return shots that are automatic and have us in big trouble if we don't anchor up right away, and 10 more that he probably hits but leave us with some immediate counterplay. On balance, that seems like we regret the hit more often the we don't. OTOH, when we play safe, we are never a favorite on our next roll, while when we hit, we are a clear favorite on the 13 rolls where white can't return hit. how many gammons do we lose on the return hits. When we dance, we lose a ton, when we enter (75%), I don't think it hurts us as much as hitting helps.

I am very cautiously deciding to hit even at this gammon save score, but it seems close.

playing 23/18 deserves some consideration here in gammon-save land. much as I like making my 5 point, getting the back checker to safety seems the surest route to avoiding the gammon. If we aren't taking this hit now, I'm not sure how much the five point is worth to us, since we aren't all that likely to get another and our racing chances are slim.

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