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BGonline.org Forums
match cube #2
Posted By: Smcrtorchs In Response To: match cube #2 (Chuck Bower)
Date: Friday, 7 June 2013, at 11:21 a.m.
For money and for races with equal distribution, I remember this which is quite accurate.
If pip count of player on roll is 75 then opp passes at 75+10%+3 If pip count of player on roll is 50 then opp passes at 50 +10%+2 If pip count of player on roll is 30 then opp passes at 30+10%+1 If pip count of player on roll is 20 then opp passes at 20+10% If pip count of player on roll is 11 then opp passes at 11.
From the above list, I find that 72+10%+3 = 82.2
Ats the takepoint is 2% higher than money. The cost of a pip should be a bit less than 2% here, but let's say it is 2%. Blue leaves a direct shot with 61 and 65 and 66 which gives him something more than 4% hitting chances. So far, i can add a pip and subtract 2. That would give white 79 as a pip count.
Then again, if blue rolls 22, 32 or 52 (rolls that would not be particularly good in a race) his chances will go up and for this effect I will deduct 1.5% from white's actual chances or subtract 0.75 (actually for simplicity only 0.7 pips) from the 82.2 and make it 81.5. So far it looks like an easy take, however here comes the main question that I would have asked OTB: how many checkers on average do you expect that blue will have born off when white starts his bear off. The answer seems to be above 3 and for each checker 1 pip at least should be added. So this should be a pass.
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