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BGonline.org Forums
match cube #1
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: match cube #1 (Chuck Bower)
Date: Saturday, 8 June 2013, at 1:08 a.m.
The trailer's cubeless tp ATS is around 29%. Leader's 4-cube tp is 1/3 so this should make the trailer's cubeful 2-cube tp right around the normal 22%.
Matussek's formula gives Blue an EPC of 27.8 vs. 27.3 for White. So Blue has about a 3.8 roll position. IF this was a pip vs. roll or vice versa, White's point of last take would be when trailing by .8 pips and Blue could double if he was within 2 pips of this lead. Blue's actually only 1.3 pips away from White's point of last take so D/T looks correct in either of these types of bearoffs. Each pip should be worth about 6% this late in the bearoff so being 1.3 pips short of roughly 78% gives Blue about 70% (again if this was p vs. r or r vs. p).
How about if this was p vs. p? White has half a pip more wastage so I'd change the pc's from 21 on roll vs. 20 to 21 on roll vs. 20.5. Kleinman's formula only gives the favorite about 66% cubeless chances so ND/T if this was a p vs. p bearoff.
In the actual position, Blue has what I'd call a pips position while White has something between a pips and a flat position. I don't really know what kind of adjustment to make for this kind of bearoff. OTB, I'd have to guess and would think that Blue's chances in this position would be closer to the p vs. p number than the p vs. r (or vice versa).
If this is correct then it's a pretty big ND.
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