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Donkey captain to play 11 at the Wednesday Chouette

Posted By: Michael Sullivan
Date: Saturday, 8 June 2013, at 2:13 a.m.

In Response To: Donkey captain to play 11 at the Wednesday Chouette (leobueno)

Seems to me that 7/6(3) is automatic to clear the bar point, the biggest trouble spot against a 2 point anchor. Once we get off the 9 that kills 6s, and having a nice stack on the 6 means we haven plenty of safe 5s while waiting for a roll that clears the 8.

For the last one, I am having trouble deciding between 9/8 and 6/5. a spare on the 5 protects against 4s blotting, while 9/8 kills sixes now, and avoids the 1/18 flyshot.

For 6/5 to work we need to roll two fours before either a 1 or a 3 first. Then white has to hit the shot we leave. We're 8% to hit 2 fours in two rolls, and 8% to *not* hit a 1 or a 3 in those two rolls, a less than 1% parlay. There's probably a few more ways 6/5 can be better, but we're not even close to 5.5%, so the flyshot is a much bigger risk.

9/8, 7/6(3) for me.

Pretty sure everything that fails to clear the 7 will be a blunder here and even worse than the flyshot play.

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