Bear in problem2
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Bear in problem2 (onur alan)
Date: Wednesday, 19 June 2013, at 4:33 p.m.
In Response To: Bear in problem2 (onur alan)
If you play 8/3* 5/3, Opp does not enter 25/36. You cover with everything except 5-5 which leaves a blot on the 2 point, and 5-2, but 5-2 plays 8/3 2/off. Your 6-6 also blots. Figure you win about 24 of these 25. Opp hits 11/36. 2-1 and 2-6 double hit, but you should still win about 2 of the other 7. You win about 26/36 in all. You win lots of gammons, since you can win a gammon by closing out just one checker, but also the majority of your follow-up rolls either hit the bar point blot and cover, or cover but allow you to leave your checker on the 8 point for another shot at the blot. Net gammon wins are very favorable to you.
If instead you play 6/1 6/4, you lead 65-77 in the race, not on roll. That's a big lead in the raw count, even though you've largely wasted your 5-2 roll by playing it inside. Most of your numbers next roll clear the bar point; in fact, most of your numbers can make at least a 5 and 1/2 point board, and about 1/4 of your numbers can point without leaving a direct shot. With that lead (and a little less waste), and contact seeming to favor you, 6/1 6/4 has to be the DMP play, but you'll win very few gammons, which makes 8/3* 5/3 the standout play.
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