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Bear in problem
Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 19 June 2013, at 5:06 p.m.
In Response To: Bear in problem (onur alan)
If you play 8/4 6/4, you lead 7179 (but not on roll) after the play. On your next roll, all numbers can be played safely except 66 65 52. If you play 5/1 6/4, you have the same raw lead but you've wasted some of your roll by playing inside. On your next roll, all numbers are safe except 65. With either play, you have 16/36 pointing numbers (although as noted 66 blots after 8/4 6/4). I can't decide if 3/36 more blotting numbers are worth bringing a checker in and using this roll more efficently. I would choose 8/4 6/4; hopefully it doesn't matter much.
The other choice is 8/2*. If Opp fans, all numbers cover except 52 and 55. But unlike "bear in problem 2," covering numbers only make a 5 point board. If Opp has fanned, the 3 point is likely to be open for him to enter and get off the gammon. If Opp has entered with a 3 (a 9/36 chance), 5/36 of your numbers blot, and 8/36 of your numbers play safe only if played inside. So, in addition to giving Opp about 30% hitting numbers on his next roll, you also give him several ways to hit on his following roll, either from the bar on your unmade 2 point, or from his 22 point when he enters and you roll an unsafe number. And (also in contrast to the other position) hitting can't gain nearly as many gammons  in the other position Opp loses a full roll 70% of the time, after you which you usually close him out; here, he loses a full roll only 45% of the time, half a roll 25% of the time, and you're not likely to ever complete a 6 point board.

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