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BGonline.org Forums
Bear in problem
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Bear in problem (onur alan)
Date: Wednesday, 19 June 2013, at 5:06 p.m.
If you play 8/4 6/4, you lead 71-79 (but not on roll) after the play. On your next roll, all numbers can be played safely except 6-6 6-5 5-2. If you play 5/1 6/4, you have the same raw lead but you've wasted some of your roll by playing inside. On your next roll, all numbers are safe except 6-5. With either play, you have 16/36 pointing numbers (although as noted 6-6 blots after 8/4 6/4). I can't decide if 3/36 more blotting numbers are worth bringing a checker in and using this roll more efficently. I would choose 8/4 6/4; hopefully it doesn't matter much.
The other choice is 8/2*. If Opp fans, all numbers cover except 5-2 and 5-5. But unlike "bear in problem 2," covering numbers only make a 5 point board. If Opp has fanned, the 3 point is likely to be open for him to enter and get off the gammon. If Opp has entered with a 3 (a 9/36 chance), 5/36 of your numbers blot, and 8/36 of your numbers play safe only if played inside. So, in addition to giving Opp about 30% hitting numbers on his next roll, you also give him several ways to hit on his following roll, either from the bar on your unmade 2 point, or from his 22 point when he enters and you roll an unsafe number. And (also in contrast to the other position) hitting can't gain nearly as many gammons -- in the other position Opp loses a full roll 70% of the time, after you which you usually close him out; here, he loses a full roll only 45% of the time, half a roll 25% of the time, and you're not likely to ever complete a 6 point board.
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