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64S-21 Commentary

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 23 June 2013, at 10:16 a.m.

In Response To: 64S-21 All Scores Call for Rollouts (Taper_Mike)


2O ' ' ' '5X '3X1X ' '5O

1X ' ' ' '5O1X3O ' ' '4X
62S-21
Position ID: 4HPhQSDgc/ABMA Match ID: cAkFAAAAAAAA

Key: H (Hit) = 13/11 8/7*, X (Hit and split) = 24/22, 8/7*

At DMP, where neither winning nor losing a gammon matters, the data summarized in the preceding Index to Rollouts show that H beats X by about 0.004. When you need to win a gammon, at GG, the margin increases somewhat. Then, H beats X by something closer to 0.015. At GS, when you are trying to avoid the loss of a gammon, the situation reverses. X surges ahead of H by around 0.010.

So, what are we to make of unlimited games? Compared to DMP, the unlimited games result has X gaining against H. In fact, they are just about tied.

Is this due primarily to GS-like effects? When we split in unlimited games, is the advantage primarily one of losing fewer gammons? More precisely, does the advantage of losing fewer gammons given by X outweigh the advantage of winning more gammons provided by H?

Mike

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