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OLM 2013-06-25

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 25 June 2013, at 5:29 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 2013-06-25 (Jason Lee)

Assume by playing 9/1 we are settling for a race. (We can always hit later and/or opp may crunch before escaping, but to offset those chances I'm going to IGNORE the 2/36 chance opp rolls an immediate 52 roll.) We win such a race about 64% of the time by my calculation (so opp wins 36%).

If we hit loose now, opp only return hits 33%, and then still must avoid our return hit AND then escape the back checker.

At GS, gammons are a larger than normal issue, but those don't look particularly large even when we get hit and opp escapes.

8/2*, 6/4

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