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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 2013-06-25
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM 2013-06-25 (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Wednesday, 26 June 2013, at 12:54 a.m.
...Could you explain how you calculate that we only win 64% via a straight race after 9/1 (or 9/3 8/6)?
AFAIK, Kleinman Count doesn't work when the player on roll is behind. So I give player on roll an 'average' roll of 8 pips and we're then back to a 3 pip lead at 79-82. (Might be better to call it 83-86, but that just goes against your intuition so let's stick to my previous calc.)
What does KC say about a 79-82 pipcount lead? (82 -79 + 4)/sqrt(79 + 82 - 4) = 7/sqrt(157). Benjamin-Shermer say sqrt(157) = average (12,157/12)~12.5. So 7/12.5 = 14/25. Multiply by 26.7. That's about 14. Add to 50 and you get 64(%).
It's true that a pipcount lead and a race lead often aren't the same thing. That's why I ignored White's 52 roll.
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