[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OLM 2013-06-25

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 26 June 2013, at 12:54 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 2013-06-25 (Daniel Murphy)

...Could you explain how you calculate that we only win 64% via a straight race after 9/1 (or 9/3 8/6)?

AFAIK, Kleinman Count doesn't work when the player on roll is behind. So I give player on roll an 'average' roll of 8 pips and we're then back to a 3 pip lead at 79-82. (Might be better to call it 83-86, but that just goes against your intuition so let's stick to my previous calc.)

What does KC say about a 79-82 pipcount lead? (82 -79 + 4)/sqrt(79 + 82 - 4) = 7/sqrt(157). Benjamin-Shermer say sqrt(157) = average (12,157/12)~12.5. So 7/12.5 = 14/25. Multiply by 26.7. That's about 14. Add to 50 and you get 64(%).

It's true that a pipcount lead and a race lead often aren't the same thing. That's why I ignored White's 52 roll.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.