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BGonline.org Forums
End Game Double - Beaver - Take Action?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: End Game Double - Beaver - Take Action? (Rick Janowski)
Date: Friday, 28 June 2013, at 7:03 a.m.
Having doubled to 2 in a 6-roll vs. 5-roll position, should Blue accept a beaver to 4?
Yes, he should. Two ways to see this:
(1) After accepting the beaver, Blue will then take a turn, leaving White on roll. Then, 5/6 of the time White will have a 5-roll vs. 5-roll position holding the cube, which is not quite a redouble -- Blue wins 28% cubeless. But 1/6 of the time, Blue will be better than that, since White will have 10 checkers to Blue's 7.
(2) In the original 6-roll vs. 5-roll position, Blue wins a lot of games, possibly more than many would guess: almost 35%.
Doubling when you're a roll behind Side on roll Opponent Cubeless GWC Accept a beaver? 2-roll 1-roll 16.7% No (Blue only wins 16.7% cubeful) 3-roll 2-roll 25.5% No (Blue only wins 16.7% cubeful) 4-roll 3-roll 30.1% No (Blue only wins 16.7% cubeful) 5-roll 4-roll 32.9% Yes 6-roll 5-roll 34.7% Yes 7-roll 6-roll 36.1% Yes 8-roll 7-roll 37.1% Yes
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