BGonline.org Forums

Novi Wager

Posted By: Matt Reklaitis
Date: Thursday, 4 July 2013, at 1:35 a.m.

In Response To: Novi Wager (Phil Simborg)

A datapoint from my simulator: (Obviously, the conditions of your bet are different)

Field = 96 players
Ratings = normal distribution, mean=1850, std dev=50
Format = Dbl-Elim + Conso
Payouts = 5 Main + 4 Cons
Matchlens = 11pts Main, 11 pts 2nd Chance, 9 pts Cons

Probability one of top 15 rated players wins the event = .3587

This is quick-n-dirty, but if I'm interpreting the #s correctly, then the probability the top rated player cashes = .2243, the p one of the top 3 rated players cashes = .5022, and I'm too lazy to figure it out for the top 15.

Messages In This Thread

• Novi Wager
  Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 3 July 2013, at 9:52 p.m.
  • I'll take the field...
    Jim Stutz -- Thursday, 4 July 2013, at 1:02 a.m.
  • Novi Wager
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 4 July 2013, at 1:25 a.m.
  • Some data
    Tom Keith -- Thursday, 4 July 2013, at 1:32 a.m.
    • Some data
      Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 4 July 2013, at 1:57 a.m.
      • Some data (and bad counting)
        Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 4 July 2013, at 1:59 a.m.
  • Novi Wager
    Matt Reklaitis -- Thursday, 4 July 2013, at 1:35 a.m.
    • Novi Wager
      Phil Simborg -- Thursday, 4 July 2013, at 1:43 a.m.
  • Novi Wager
    Steve Mellen -- Thursday, 4 July 2013, at 1:45 a.m.
  • The flaw in your unspoken logic
    Rod -- Sunday, 7 July 2013, at 5:56 a.m.