My evaluation began with the obvious. The 4pt must be covered. That’s the first 2. Next, as I began to tick off candidate plays, I became aware that there is no safe play that does not include moving the spare from the 8pt to the 6pt. That’s the second 2. That left only two candidates for the last two 2s: lifting the 9pt or lifting the 8pt. The timing is so close that it is tempting to lift the 9pt. That way Blue could hold his prime against the 2pt anchor. When White rolls small numbers he might crack. With big ones, he may be forced off his 5pt anchor. Suppose the latter occurs. Suppose White runs one checker off the 5pt, but also leaves one behind. In that case, Blue might be willing to risk some fly shots if he rolled a perfect POH number. He also might be happy to pick and pass. What he won’t do, however, is hit loose. In these latter variations, Blue will play safely as best he can. That is why Blue cannot afford to keep the 8pt. It creates a more difficult bear for him, no matter whether White has 1 checker or 2 on the 5pt. As Adam pointed out, it will be easier to clear the 9pt later than it would be the 8pt. If Blue ends up blotting on the 9pt, the opponent only gets a single direct shot, instead of two. To this, let me add a pair of lesser points. First, 8/6(2) crosses over, giving Blue two extra inside checkers to play while he is waiting for a safe roll to clear one of his remaining outside points. Second are the well-known idiosyncrasies, when you hold the bar point, of bearing in against a 2pt anchor. If you clear your other outside points before clearing the 7pt, then 5 becomes a trouble number. While you are waiting for a safe roll that clears, any 5 you roll must be played from the 6pt. If you run out of spares there, and then roll another 5, your best play may be to lift the 6pt, even though the bar point would remain. Because of this, it is good to have some extra checkers on the 6pt. 8/6(2) gives them to you. Mike | ||||||||||||
