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The flaw in your unspoken logic

Posted By: Rod
Date: Sunday, 7 July 2013, at 5:56 a.m.

In Response To: Novi Wager (Phil Simborg)

Somehow you equate winning with skill when, in fact, winning is either luck or skill or both.

If you look at my prior post with the random walk model for wins in money game sessions you will note that the better player will all too often find himself down and the inferior player will win more than you might otherwise expect... After 100 games (about a 10-12 hour session).

Obviously I know how bad your bet is now but I would have taken the field in a heartbeat. 2-1 is just such a silly number. And as "proof" I would have taken the field, prior to the start of the Calcutta, I quickly assessed my group (of 4 vs "better players" in groups of 2) of having the most equity and discussed splitting it with another person in my group. My group went second and was the first blind bid chosen - to MFIC (pretty smart money, I think). I thought I might wait and pick my group up a bit later but it didn't happen. Since my group of 4 "scrubs" went for more than the average 2 "supers" it seems that the money in the crowd agrees. Previous winners would have to comprise a large minority for 2-1 to be a good bet on the win.

And besides, how many long thought-out and reasoned 0.770, 0.350 and 0.310 blunders can giants make before they give up some winning chances?

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