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Why I wanted to know.

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Monday, 8 July 2013, at 1:32 p.m.

In Response To: Why I wanted to know. (Mochy)

While this was an excellent question and exercise, I think it is also important to note that the biggest mistake we make when considering whether or not we are too good is in comparing gammon chances to wins. Most players only consider these two factors, assuming (in a money game) that you simply need to win twice as many gammons as losses to play on, when the real key to the answer is what is likely to happen on the next roll only and where you are likely to be on the following roll when you can again decide whether or not to play on.

Unfortunately there is no clear formula (that I know of), but there are some strong principles and rules of thumb and approaches that help us get to the right answer. And once we have learned all of those, we have to toss in the human factors. (In my chouette there are times it is nearly impossible to lose your market!)

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